Nice post! Food for thought - US exceptionalism has become a bit of a narrative. The immediate underpinning trend in my view is that of fundamentals: real earnings per share (and its drivers return on equity, margins - especially free cash flow generation - and growth). And the payouts - dividends plus buybacks. US edges out Europe and Japan on ROE 19% to 14% and 10% over the last four trailing quarters. Policy changes have created uncertainty, but not as much for the companies driving these region level fundamentals. It will be interesting to see if the relative International performance persist! :)
Thanks for this! As a member of the baby boom generation we have lived our whole lives in the decades of American promise and ascendancy. Being white and privileged to have access to education, watching medical breakthroughs that eradicated diseases, seeing civil rights established into law, and having a great musical soundtrack throughout, I think that we thought that this is just how life goes. That our generation did not live through world wars is enough of a historical anomaly that we should pause and wonder how “normal” our lives has really been. The liberal democracy world order seems, now, to be less of a certainty going forward and what replaces it is highly uncertain. So all of this is my way of saying that what has been simply won’t last and to have this concept of American exceptionalism, as if we are somehow inoculated from change and disruption, is a beloved delusion. International markets are looking interesting!
Do you have a suggestion of what to do instead?
Nice post! Food for thought - US exceptionalism has become a bit of a narrative. The immediate underpinning trend in my view is that of fundamentals: real earnings per share (and its drivers return on equity, margins - especially free cash flow generation - and growth). And the payouts - dividends plus buybacks. US edges out Europe and Japan on ROE 19% to 14% and 10% over the last four trailing quarters. Policy changes have created uncertainty, but not as much for the companies driving these region level fundamentals. It will be interesting to see if the relative International performance persist! :)
Thanks for this! As a member of the baby boom generation we have lived our whole lives in the decades of American promise and ascendancy. Being white and privileged to have access to education, watching medical breakthroughs that eradicated diseases, seeing civil rights established into law, and having a great musical soundtrack throughout, I think that we thought that this is just how life goes. That our generation did not live through world wars is enough of a historical anomaly that we should pause and wonder how “normal” our lives has really been. The liberal democracy world order seems, now, to be less of a certainty going forward and what replaces it is highly uncertain. So all of this is my way of saying that what has been simply won’t last and to have this concept of American exceptionalism, as if we are somehow inoculated from change and disruption, is a beloved delusion. International markets are looking interesting!